Tale of the Tape: Virginia at North Carolina – 247Sports

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The Virginia Cavaliers look to win their third straight game, all on the road, Saturday as they travel to the Dean E. Smith Center to play the North Carolina Tar Heels.
UVA improved to 9-5 overall and 3-1 in the ACC on Tuesday when they defeated Clemson 75-65. The Cavaliers shot 54.3 percent from the field and made 21-24 from the free-throw line. In the first matchup with Clemson UVA shot 36.6 percent from the field and committed 14 turnovers.
The Hoo’s were led by Jayden Gardner who had a game-high 23 points on 7-11 shooting. Armaan Franklin was the only other Cavalier in double-figures as he had 13 points. All eight players who played for UVA scored including 15 points from their bench.
UVA’s defense was outstanding in the second half as they held Clemson to 28 points on 9-25 shooting. The Tigers only had four second-chance points and got four points from their bench.
They never led by more than three points and did not lead at all during the game’s final eight minutes.
North Carolina comes into Saturday’s game with a 10-4 record overall and a 2-1 record in the ACC. The Tar Heels lost their first ACC game on Wednesday when they fell to Notre Dame 78-73.
They were led by Armando Bacot who had 21 points and 17 rebounds. He was joined in double-figures by RJ Davis (19 points) and Caleb Love (15 points). UNC was missing Dawson Garcia, Kerwin Walton, and former Hoo Justin McKoy. Garcia sat out with a concussion while the other two players were in COVID protocols.
UNC is 7-0 at home this season while UVA is 2-2 on the road. The Tar Heels are 1-4 this season against teams in the KenPom top 100 with the only victory coming against Michigan. UVA is 3-3 against teams in the KenPom top 100 but the Cavaliers do have two losses to teams outside the top 100.
Virginia has won seven straight games against UNC and they haven’t lost on the road against the Heels since 2017.
North Carolina Tar Heels:
Ranking: #31 in KenPom
Record: 10-4 (2-1 ACC)
Last Result: L 78-73 Notre Dame
Virginia Cavaliers:
Ranking: #66 in KenPom
Record: 9-5 (3-1 ACC)
Last Result: W 75-65 Clemson

TV Info: 1P on ESPN

Stats Breakdown:

UVA- 63.6 (315)
UNC- 79.1 (41)

UVA- 57.7 (10)
UNC- 71.4 (246)

UVA- 105.4 (130)
UNC- 110.6 (45)

UVA- 95.6 (140)
UNC- 99.9 (243)

Adj. Efficiency OFF:
UVA- 106.8 (78)
UNC- 113.7 (17)

Adj. Efficiency DEF:
UVA- 94.5 (52)
UNC- 96.9 (79)

Turnover %:
UVA- 17.0 (67)
UNC- 17.5 (87)

Effective FG%
UVA- 51.5 (110)
UNC- 54.9 (27)

Adj. Tempo:
UVA- 59.8 (358)
UNC- 71.3 (63)

Possessions Per Game:
UVA- 61.9 (358)
UNC- 72.8 (98)

Rebound Margin:
UVA- -0.7 (245)
UNC- 8.7 (18)

Assists Per Game:
UVA- 13.6 (171)
UNC- 14.5 (112)

Offensive Rebound Percentage:
UVA- 26.5 (231)
UNC- 28.7 (163)

Steals Per Game:
UVA- 5.7 (274)
UNC- 5.4 (299)

Blocks Per Game:
UVA- 5.4 (28)
UNC- 3.4 (160)

Assists Turnover Ratio:
UVA- 1.32 (47)
UNC- 1.16 (103)

Two-Point Field Goal Percentage:
UVA- 53.6% (64)
UNC- 52.5% (89)

Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage:
UVA- 31.7% (242)
UNC- 39.7% (9)

Free-Throw Percentage:
UVA- 72.9% (116)
UNC- 75.3% (59)

Two-Point Field-Goal Percentage Defense:
UVA- 43.7% (23)
UNC- 49.4% (167)

Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage Defense:
UVA- 33.9% (210)
UNC- 32.1% (130)

UVA- 31.2 (139)
UNC- 31.2 (140)
Stats are from KenPom, Team Rankings, T-Rank, and College basketball reference
Players to watch:
F Armando Bacot: 15.7 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 1.7 APG, 64.5% 2FG, 33.3% 3FG, 61.9% FT
Bacot leads the Tar Heels in points, rebounds, and blocks. He has 10 double-doubles this season including five straight. He has scored over 10 points 11 times this season and has 10 or more rebounds in 10 games. Over his last five games, Bacot is averaging 18.2 points per game and 12.0 rebounds. He had 21 points and 17 rebounds in the loss to Notre Dame while shooting 9-13 from the field.
G Caleb Love: 15.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.3 APG, 45.7% 2FG, 44.1% 3FG, 84.0% FT
Love is second on the team in scoring and assists. After shooting 26.6% from three last season he has improved immensely and is shooting 44.1% from three this season. He has scored in double figures in 12 games and has five games with 20 or more points. In his last three games, he is 9-17 from three. He had 15 points on 6-12 shooting against ND on Wednesday.
G RJ Davis: 13.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.6 APG, 51.9% 2FG, 45.5% 3FG, 81.4% FT
Davis, like Love, has improved his outside shot this season as he has improved from 32.3% last season to 45.5% this season. Davis has scored in double figures 10 times this season including two 20-point games. He had 19 points and five assists against ND while shooting 6-12 from the field (3-7 from three).

G Kihei Clark: 9.9 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 4.2 APG, 44.9% 2FG, 42.1% 3FG, 85.2% FT
Clark had eight points and four rebounds in the win over Clemson. He shot 3-9 from the field including 2-5 from three. In his last two games, Clark has shot 5-10 from three while scoring a combined 25 points. Jayden Gardner called Clark the team’s most valuable player and the last two games have shown his worth. If Clark can keep up his play then UVA could make it three straight wins on the road.

G Armann Franklin: 12.0 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 1.4 APG, 61.3% 2FG, 21.5% 3FG, 83.3% FT
Franklin had 13 points and four rebounds against Clemson while shooting 4-11 from the field. He was 1-6 from three and despite making at least one 3-point shot in each of his last four games he is only 6-25 from deep in those four games. Despite his struggles, Franklin has been outstanding on his mid-range shots. Franklin will be counted on Saturday for scoring as UVA will look to keep pace with the Tar Heels.

F Jayden Gardner: 15.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.4 APG, 59.1% 2FG, 37.5% 3FG, 75.9% FT
Gardner had 23 points and five rebounds in Tuesday’s game vs Clemson. He shot 7-11 from the field. Over his last two games, Gardner has scored 38 points while shooting 14-24 from the field. UVA needs to continue to run their offense through Gardner as he had 13 points on 6-7 shooting in the first half against Clemson and had 10 in the second half with eight of those points coming via the free-throw line.

UVA keys to the game:
Prediction: UVA 66 UNC 64

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